Uncertainty, ambiguity and adaptive flood forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The Uncertainty Cascade in Flood Forecasting
A methodology for propagating and constraining the uncertainty inherent in real-time flood forecasting is presented and demonstrated on an application to the River Severn, UK. The flood forecasting system is based on a cascade of rainfall-runoff and flood routing models, developed using stochastic transfer functions with state dependent parameterisations to allow for nonlinearity. The nonlinear...
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This paper reviews non-probabilistic approaches of modelling uncertainty, particularly in flood forecasting and introduces a fuzzy set theory-based method for treating precipitation uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling, which allows the temporal and/or spatial disaggregation of precipitation. The results of the fuzzy set theory-based method are compared with the probabilistic approach using...
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عدم قطعیت در بارش پیش بینی شده، یک منبع اصلی عدم قطعیت در پیش بینی بهنگام سیل می باشد. عدم قطعیت بارش از عدم قطعیت در مقدار بارش، توزیع زمانی و توزیع مکانی بارش تشکیل می شود. در این تحقیق به منظور پخش عدم قطعیت بارش در مدل پیش بینی سیل HEC-1 ، روش گسسته سازی زمانی در چهارچوب اصل بسط تئوری فازی و در ترکیب با الگوریتم ژنتیک نرمال بکار برده می شود. عدم قطعیت به علت توزیع زمانی ناشناخته بارش با ت...
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Flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Consequently forecasts of it are inherently uncertain in nature due to various sources of uncertainty including model uncertainty, input uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. Several approaches have been reported to quantify and propagate uncertainty through flood forecasting models using probabilistic and fuzzy set theory based method...
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In this paper we discuss the importance of ambiguity, uncertainty and limited information on individuals’ decision making in situations that have an impact on their privacy. We present experimental evidence from a survey study that demonstrates the impact of framing a marketing offer on participants’ willingness to accept when the consequences of the offer are uncertain and highly ambiguous.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Policy and Society
سال: 2016
ISSN: 1449-4035,1839-3373
DOI: 10.1016/j.polsoc.2016.06.002